Iran — analysis of the armed forces

What the inventory on record could form, man and sustain, by published norms — the same engine and the same figures as the Analysis tab of the interactive map. Models of what the equipment allows, not the real order of battle, training or readiness.

43.7brigade-eq12.7 squadron-eq

308%manning610,000 on strength

30%O&S share$7.4B · 2025

19.5strength indexinventory only, 0–100

combat categories documented 17 of 17·support categories documented 4 of 7·norms table 2026-10-19·About the method ↗

139 types without a published quantity — counted as 1 unit (lower bound) in the index and coverage

data for Live War: 73 % — missing: quantity 28, interceptor stock 7, combat radius 6, missile range 4, ship cells 4, drone stock 1, storage 1 About the method ↗

Budget too small for the personnel at any tier: even the low cost tier exceeds 45% of the budget
At published norms the budget cannot sustain this inventory

Rings

Shahab-3 — 2,000 kmSukhoi Su-22 — 1,150 km · with tankers 1,725 kmNorthrop F-5 — 1,056 km · with tankers 1,584 kmPanha 2091 — 300 kmFateh-110 — 300 km

S-200 — 300 km · low-flying targets 36 km · 6.3 batteries on recordSayyad-2 & Khordad 15 — 75 km · low-flying targets 36 km · 26.5 batteries on record9K330 Tor — 12 km · 14.8 batteries on record

Rings from the border: from any point of the territory the system reaches this far — the markers on the map stand in formation, not at bases, so the rings are never drawn from them. Dashed: with tanker aircraft on record (radius × 1.5). Combat radius as the source gives it; a plain published range is divided by three (helicopters: halved).

One battery of the longest-range system of every tier, placed at the centre of the country: solid = engagement range at altitude, dashed = against low-flying targets (radar horizon ≈ 36 km). The share of the territory all the batteries could cover is in the Air-defence coverage section below.

Rings off.

Force structure i

Inventory: a 44-brigade army, a 13-squadron combat air force and a navy of 1 major surface combatants and 6 submarines.

formation · what it means	equivalents
Tank battalion-equivalents`3,163 tanks ÷ 36`·3 companies of 10–14 tanks; light tanks at half weight derived	87.9
Mechanised battalion-equivalents`1,300 carriers ÷ 30`·3 companies × 10 IFV / APC sourced	43.3
Manoeuvre brigade-equivalents`131 battalion-eq ÷ 3`·3 manoeuvre battalions (tank + mechanised) per brigade sourced	43.7
Division-equivalents`43.7 brigade-eq ÷ 3`·3 brigades per division sourced	14.6
Artillery battalion-equivalents`2,807 guns ÷ 18`·3 batteries × 6 guns, self-propelled and towed sourced	156
Rocket-artillery battalion-equivalents`1,567 launchers ÷ 18`·3 batteries × 6 launchers derived	87.1
SAM battalion-equivalents`47 launchers ÷ family norms`·other long-range 31 ÷ 8 (fallback)·S-300 16 ÷ 12 low-confidence source	5.2
SAM battery-equivalents`218 launchers ÷ family norms`·other 30 ÷ 4 (fallback)·Tor 29 ÷ 4·HAWK 150 ÷ 6·S-75 9 ÷ 6 sourced	41.3
Attack-helicopter battalion-equivalents`66 helicopters ÷ 24`·24 helicopters per attack battalion (US Army) sourced	2.8
Transport-helicopter battalion-equivalents`185 helicopters ÷ 30`·30 helicopters per assault battalion (US Army) sourced	6.2
Fighter squadron-equivalents`229 aircraft ÷ 18`·18 fighter / attack aircraft per squadron (NATO 12–24) derived	12.7
Transport squadron-eq`74 aircraft ÷ 9`·9 aircraft per squadron (placeholder: half a fighter squadron) assumption	8.2
Tanker squadron-eq`3 aircraft ÷ 9`·9 aircraft per squadron (placeholder: half a fighter squadron) assumption	0.3
UAV squadron-eq`444 aircraft ÷ 9`·9 aircraft per squadron (placeholder: half a fighter squadron)·480 small tactical / loitering drones not counted assumption	49.3

Not on record: MRAP / protected 4×4, mortars, bombers, AEW&C

naval class	hulls	crews needed
major surface combatants	1	150
corvettes & fast attack craft	30	805
submarines	6	300
amphibious	29	1,076
patrol vessels	121	950
mine warfare	1	50
auxiliaries	31	600

Formation equivalents by published tables of organisation — an estimate of what the inventory could form, not the actual order of battle.

Manning & readiness i

Personnel needed to man the inventory: 197,864 (crews 66,222 / maintainers 57,443 / support 74,199)·on strength: 610,000·manning 308%·the force is infantry-heavy or much equipment is in storage

group	units	availability	effective fleet
Land	68,317	70% assumption	47,822
Air	1,721	65% sourced	1,119
Sea	219	36% sourced	79

Effective fleet is shown next to the nominal count, never instead of it. Support coefficient 0.6 derived

Air-defence coverage i

tier	at altitude	vs low-flying
Long-range (100 km and more)6.3 batteries·S-200 300 km, Bavar-373 200 km, S-300PMU2 195 km	38%	0.9%
Medium-range (30–100 km)26.5 batteries·Sayyad-2 & Khordad 15 75 km, MIM-23 Hawk 45 km	7%	4%
Short-range (under 30 km)14.8 batteries·9K330 Tor 12 km, Rapier 8.2 km	0.2%	0.2%

Long-range SAM could cover ~38% of the territory at altitude, ~0.9% against low-flying targets·Medium-range SAM could cover ~7% of the territory at altitude, ~4% against low-flying targets·Short-range SAM could cover ~0.2% of the territory at altitude, ~0.2% against low-flying targets·all tiers against low-flying targets: up to ~5%

1 air-defence types without a documented range — not counted (HQ-2J)

Territory area from the outline: 1,623,733 km²·overlap factor assumption·radar horizon derived

Strike reach i

system	km
Shahab-3BMS·missile range	2,000
Sukhoi Su-22ATK·combat range as published·with tankers ≈ 1,725 km	1,150
Northrop F-5FTR·combat radius·with tankers ≈ 1,584 km	1,056
Grumman F-14FTR·combat radius·with tankers ≈ 1,395 km	930
Chengdu F-7FTR·combat range as published·with tankers ≈ 1,275 km	850
F-4 Phantom IIFTR·≈ ⅓ of the published range·with tankers ≈ 1,046 km	697
HESA KowsarFTR·≈ ⅓ of the published range·with tankers ≈ 999 km	666
Sukhoi Su-24ATK·combat range as published·with tankers ≈ 923 km	615
Panha 2091AH·≈ ½ of the published range	300
Fateh-110BMS·missile range	300
Mil Mi-28AH·combat range as published	200
Fajr-5MLRS·missile range	130

3 more systems with a documented range

rings for the 5 longest-range systems (at most 2 per kind)·7 strike types without a documented range

Budget realism i

Inventory value11 of 159 types priced·1% of units covered	$2.66B
Annual budgetSIPRI 2025	≈$7.4B
Operation & support / year30% of budget·benchmark O&M 40%·incl. +30% for equipment families·O&S from estimated unit prices for 146 types	$2.22B
Personnel cost / yearassumed cost per service member $15K (model tier: low, fitted to the budget)·124% of budget·benchmark 22%·personnel-heavy at published norms	$9.15B
Implied procurement sharethe budget cannot sustain this inventory at published norms	-54%
Years to re-buy the inventory	—

Support equipment not documented (ENG, MED, C3, CBRN, EOD)·figures are a lower bound

Budget structure compared with US FY2025 / NATO guideline shares; national accounting differs — read as an order of magnitude. Cost-per-service-member tiers derived

World standing i

Active personneltop 20% (5th of 25 documented countries)	610,000
Main battle tankstop 18% (4th of 22 documented countries)	3,163
Infantry carriers (IFV + APC)top 58% (14th of 24 documented countries)	1,300
Artillery (SP + towed + MLRS)top 13% (3rd of 24 documented countries)	4,374
SAM launchers / systemstop 30% (6th of 20 documented countries)	265
Combat aircrafttop 27% (6th of 22 documented countries)	229
Helicopters (all)top 32% (8th of 25 documented countries)	251
Major surface combatantstop 93% (13th of 14 documented countries)	1
Submarinestop 58% (7th of 12 documented countries)	6
Military budgettop 58% (14th of 24 documented countries)	$7.4B

Closest inventories: Sudan (17,971 units, 81% similar), Russia (53,474 units, 77% similar), Egypt (53,942 units, 77% similar)

Inventory Strength Index i

19.5of 100

Land36.8

Air6.7

Sea7.9

Air defence & missiles26.1

Enablers20.2

Transparent index: published weights × counts, normalised to the leading documented country per block; quality factor 1 for every type until stage 2; mass categories on a square-root scale above 100 units. It measures inventory, not training, doctrine, readiness or will — like every such index. Weights assumption mass rule assumption

Fleet age i

category	type entered service	older than 30 y	past life by 2036
Multiple Launch Rocket Systems2 of 6 types with a year few types·BM-21 Grad 1963 … Fajr-3 1996	1966	91%	100% (30 y)
Ballistic Missile Systems2 of 2 types with a year few types·Fateh-110 2002 … Shahab-3 2003	2003	0%	100% (25 y)
Surface-to-Air Missile Systems7 of 8 types with a year·MIM-23 Hawk 1960 … Sayyad-2 & Khordad 15 2019	1972	86%	92% (30 y)
Fighter Aircraft8 of 9 types with a year·F-4 Phantom II 1960 … HESA Kowsar 2020	1973	88%	91% (35 y)
Attack Aircraft1 of 2 types with a year few types·Sukhoi Su-24 1975	1975	100%	100% (35 y)
Attack Helicopters2 of 3 types with a year few types·Panha 2091 1998 … Mil Mi-28 2009	2000	0%	100% (25 y)
Transport Helicopters4 of 4 types with a year·Boeing CH-47 Chinook 1962 … Mil Mi-17 1981	1970	100%	100% (25 y)
Submarines2 of 2 types with a year few types·Nahang class 2006 … Ghadir class 2007	2007	0%	0% (33 y)
Frigates1 of 1 types with a year few types·Alvand class 1971	1971	100%	100% (30 y)
Fast Attack Craft5 of 6 types with a year·Kaman class 1977 … Shahid Rouhi 2022	1989	87%	91% (25 y)
Landing Ships2 of 2 types with a year few types·Hengam class 1974 … Karbala class 1995	1987	100%	100% (35 y)

Year the type entered service, not the airframes: fleets built long after the type's debut (Mi-8, F-16, Tu-95) look older here than they are.·Service life by category low-confidence source

Open Iran on the map Equipment list of Iran About the method

Figures are static: they are rendered at build time from the same data as the map and change with every data update. Norms, sources and statuses: the method page.